There are only four spots remaining for the EURO cup starting June 2012. Germany, Spain, Holland, England, Italy, France, Ukraine, Poland, Denmark, Sweden, Greece, and Russia have already locked up a spot for the tournament. In the playoff games, Portugal faces Bosnia, the Czechs will play Montenegro, Estonia sees Ireland, and Croatia will play Turkey. Regardless of what happens in the playoff rounds, the results of the group qualifiers have altered the perception of the World Cup qualifiers coming up. The failures of certain teams to even qualify for the play-offs and the inclusion of a few surprise teams makes the 2014 World Cup qualifiers much different than from four months ago.
One of the biggest changes in appearance comes in the group headed up by Norway. At the time of the draw Norway was ranked by Fifa in the top 8 of all European teams, and were placed as a top spot. Their group also contains Slovenia and Switzerland two teams that were featured in the 2010 World Cup. However not one of those teams even made the knockout rounds. Norway finished third behind Denmark and Portugal in the tightest of the groups. Switzerland finished third one point behind Montenegro and Slovenia finished fourth behind Italy, Estonia, and Serbia. Re-evaluating this group, which was already weak to begin with, it now looks like a joke. Watching this group will be like watching a Champions League group consisting of Genk, Rubin Kazan, APOEL, and BATE.
Looking ahead for some other match ups, Ireland must really be feeling unlucky (again). They are paired up with Sweden and Germany. Germany had one of the best qualifications and Sweden, who finished second only to Netherlands, automatically qualified for the EURO as the best runner up, finishing with more points in the same amount of games as group winners France and Russia. The Czech Republic is another team that could make it to Ukraine and Poland but not Brazil, not that I actually think the Czechs are that good. However, both Ireland and Czech Republic have a chance to qualify for Euro, Ireland more than Czech and then will most likely be at home for the World Cup. Another group that was a weak to begin with that is now looking a little weaker is group A.
Group A may even be weaker than Group E (Norway's group). The group consists of Croatia, Serbia, Belgium, Scotland, Wales, and Macedonia. Croatia ended up second to Greece in a group that saw the next best competition being Israel. Furthermore I see them losing in the Euro playoff to Turkey, who finished second in a much harder group consisting of Germany, Belgium, and Austria. Serbia were highly talked about coming into South Africa having won their qualifying ahead of France but had a disappointing tournament, finishing last in their group. Coming into this Euro many people believed they would finish second and even compete with Italy for the top spot of group C. Somehow they failed to reach the playoff, finishing one point behind Estonia after losing 1-0 in their last decisive game against Slovenia. This is a very big disappointment for a team as talented as Serbia. Belgium are responsible for one of Germany's worst results in the Euro qualifying campaign, a 1-0 win in their first game, the only time Germany was held to only 1 goal. After that start they weren't able to keep up the pace and finished third, definitely regretting the two points they dropped on the 1-1 draw to Azerbaijan. Scotland and Wales were both placed in groups containing five teams and neither one could make the playoff round, Scotland losing out to Czech Republic for second and only finishing above the mighty Lithuania and Liechtenstein. Overall this group is looking to be a real nail bitter with every team having a chance.
Of course there is never going to be a perfect qualifying draw where every group is perfectly constructed. Also there is no transitive property and the teams that qualified for the Euro with stiff competition may not do nearly as well in the WC qualifiers, but it could also be possible to wait until after the Euro Cup qualifying has finished to get a better gage at how teams are performing. That way groups like A and E don't exist and teams like Ireland don't miss a tournament because of outside circumstances.
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